Bracing for the Storm
This one’s preemptive.
When our preseason football section hits the news stands tomorrow, those who read down to the fine print will see that I’ve picked Wake Forest to lose to Duke. First thing my editor, Phil Hrichak, did upon reading my copy was give me a call. “Do you plan to leave town by Sept. 3?’’ he asked.
I know, I know. I’m inviting all kinds of grief down on my head with the prediction. The easy move would be to go ahead and pick the Deacons. And I do think the Deacons will be better this season than Duke. Wake, by my crystal ball, will go 8-4 and make a bowl for the fourth straight year. I really thought Duke will be bowl eligible until I was reminded the Blue Devils play two games this season against Bowl Championship Series teams (Richmond and N.C. Central) and can only count one toward bowl eligibility. So they’ll have to really hustle to get to six wins, especially now that Kansas—whom the Devils play in Lawrence on Sept. 19—is no longer a Big 12 stepchild.
But I’ve also seen every game between Duke and Wake in recent seasons, and I’ve seen how two of the last three have gone, with Duke outplaying the Deacons most of the game before Chip Vaughn blocked a chip-shot field goal in 2006 and Alphonso Smith picked off a pass at the goal line in overtime last season. Any objective observer would agree that Wake has been lucky to beat Duke those two times, and it stands to reason that one season its luck will run out. It’s also easy to see that the Blue Devils, under Coach David Cutcliffe, are making impressive strides in the sport.
Long-time readers of this blog know my feelings about preseason predictions. They’re based on very little to no available evidence, so they’re essentially worthless. If it were my call, we wouldn’t predict games. But Hrichak and, before him, my previous editor Terry Oberle, always pointed out how they’re popular with the readers and they stir up some interest. So I don’t grouse too much about doing them.
All I have to say to those who vilify me for a preseason prediction is, you’re taking this stuff far more seriously than I am.
Back to the main page.
By Dan Collins on 09/02/2009 (10:54 am)
Comments
Joe Bob’s America” for 5/6/94
By Joe Bob Briggs
Here’s how I know that opinion polls are always wrong.
Think about what happens when you go to a restaurant. First you get the menus, right? You have all these choices. Then everybody at the table DISCUSSES what they’re gonna order. I don’t why people do this. They could just read the menu and order, right? But they feel the need to DISCUSS what they’re gonna order.
And while they’re discussing what they’re gonna order, they TELL YOU what they’re gonna order. But first they tell you what they MIGHT order. “The pork chops sound good. I bet you they make a great hamburger here, though. Oh, I have hamburger all the time. I shouldn’t get that here. What are you having?”
So now the person has suggested two things he MIGHT order, and asked for a THIRD suggestion from another person.
So the next person says, “Well, I thought I would order the flaming teriyaki pepper steak.”
And the original guy goes, “Ooooooooo! Flaming teriyaki pepper steak. Yes! That sounds GREAT!”
And then they talk about it some more, and they discuss it some more, and they go into stuff about their diet. “I’ve probably had enough red meat for today. I should look at the salads.”
And then they discuss nine kinds of salads they could possibly have.
And then they MAKE A DECISION. “You know what? I’m gonna try this crabcake dish with the red sauce.”
End of story, right? They fold the menu. They have a cocktail. They wait around until the waiter gets there. The waiter looks at em, and they say, “I’ll have the pork chops.”
In other words, they NEVER order what they JUST SAID THEY WERE GOING TO ORDER. Half the time, they don’t even order anything they’ve DISCUSSED ordering.
But they’re not LYING about. Two seconds before the waiter asked em the question, they were CERTAIN, in their heart of hearts, that they were indeed ordering the crabcake dish with the red sauce. But at the MOMENT OF TRUTH, the stomach sends a message to the brain, and they blurt out “Pork chops.”
Do you see what I’m saying here?
There are three kinds of opinion polls:
Polls that you take at the stage when the menus are passed out and you’re looking over the choices.
Polls that you take at the stage when you ask other people for their suggestions.
And polls that you take at the moment when you make your final decision and announce it.
The only time you can’t take an opinion poll is at the moment when you order. By then it’s too late.
In other words, opinion polls assume that the person answering the pollster’s question KNOWS WHAT HE WANTS.
Which, of course, he never does.
He wants the pork chops.
He just hasn’t figured it out yet.
*
To discuss the meaning of life with Joe Bob, or to get his world-famous newsletter, write Joe Bob Briggs, P.O. Box 2002, Dallas, TX 75221. Joe Bob’s Fax line is always open: 214-368-2310.
Return to the Joe Bob Report Home Page
© 1994 Joe Bob Briggs All rights reserved.
ctp on 09/06/2009 (11:26 am)
Tooo funny! Classic Lefty quote! John Lucas once told me a great Lefty about that amazing double overtime ACC final loss to NC State.. Lefty in the huddle, last Terp timeout, down 2. We’ll have to tell that one in person! Great analysis on the game. We’ll be watching. Have an extra bq plate for me!
Lou Tilley on 09/04/2009 (9:48 pm)
Hey Lou,
Great hearing from you. Like ol’ Lefty Driesell always said `Well you know, I don’t know, you know.’ Really, your guess is as good as mine. But my guess is that if the Deacons can control the line of scrimmage and the clock and keep the Baylor offense off the field most of the day then Wake will prevail. I imagine the winning team will have to score at least 25 points. So I’m going with Wake 33, Baylor 27. Now watch Baylor beat the Deacs 3-0.
Dan on 09/04/2009 (7:04 pm)
How bout a little opening game prediction Dan? Just between friends :)
Baylor qb scared me a year ago in his first game out of HS! And he has a pretty good runner and reciever.
A glass of the Finest to ya’ all. Wish I could be with you!
Lou Tilley on 09/04/2009 (6:58 pm)
I’ll take 8-4!
Michael on 09/03/2009 (1:12 pm)
Dan: I completely agree with your rationale about the Duke game - Duke IS due to beat Wake. But I sure hope you’re wrong!
Matt on 09/03/2009 (8:20 am)
Another logical way to think about this game is Wake is due for a blowout over Duke since the last 3 times Duke has been so lucky.
dc on 09/02/2009 (1:51 pm)
I think most of us realize that Duke plays out of their minds when they play Wake and WF does not approach the game with the same ferver. If our heads are on right, we will win this game.
Jim on 09/02/2009 (12:52 pm)
Page 1 of 1 pages
