No Perspective, No Joy

The Ratings Percentage Index, as most of you Peanut Gallery denizens know, is a formula used to rate the performance of college basketball teams that takes into account not just the won-loss record but such variables as who the team has played and where it has played them. There are several versions of it around cyberspace, and the NCAA keeps its own RPI that it uses as a tool to determine which teams make it into the 65-team NCAA Tournament field and which ones don’t.

A quick perusal of four different sites had Wake rated No. 22 in one, No. 23 in two and No. 30 in the other. It’s obviously still early in the season—given the Deacons have the toughest part of the schedule awaiting, starting with back-to-back trips to Duke and North Carolina—and their RPI standing will fluctuate over the remainder of the season. And once again there’s that lesson that if we didn’t learn last year we never will,  that the regular-season performance only gets you a seat at the table to play for the real stakes in the NCAA Tournament in March.

But what jumped out at me was that in all four, Wake was the ACC’s second highest rated team. And only in one was it even close with Wake at No. 30 and Clemson at No. 33. Duke is No. 1 in two and No. 2 (behind West Virginia) in the others, Clemson is No. 32 in two, No. 33 in one and No. 37 in the other and North Carolina is No. 41 in two, No. 44 in one and No. 46 in the other.

Wake is a team with flaws. Coach Dino Gaudio doesn’t always know what he’s going to get offensively from his post players, the outside shooting is sporadic, the half-court offense has a tendency to bog down to the point of stagnancy, the point guard has been known to miss a lot of free throws, the star forward dribbles in traffic too much and lately, at least, the most reliable defender, L.D. Williams, has hamstrung himself and the team with needless fouls. All are valid criticisms, for again, Wake is a team with flaws.

So what does that say about the other 10 teams in the ACC who find themselves in mid-January in worse shape than the Deacons? Duke has flaws, and it may be the best team in college basketball. All teams have flaws. The hope is that you can accentuate the positives to the point that those flaws don’t prove fatal when it matters most.

I’m not ready to nominate Dino Gaudio for the College Basketball Hall of Fame. Last season’s flameout against Maryland in Atlanta and Cleveland State in Miami with at least three future NBA players on the court is still hard to fathom, and will remain lodged deep in the craw of the Wake Forest faithful for a long time to come. And at the risk of redundancy, the success or failure of a college basketball season is determined in March. And we’ll all find out in the next couple of years probably just how good a coach Dino Gaudio really is.

Even so, I can’t get my head around some of the criticism he takes on comments from readers of the Journal, on message boards and even in conversations at games. I see and hear how he’s just an interim coach and that Wake should go out and hire a coach who really knows what he’s doing. I see and hear how he’s a good recruiter, but doesn’t know what to do with the talent he assembles. When he wins, he should have won by more. (“We should be blowing these teams out.’‘) When he loses, he’s overmatched in his job.

All this from those who purport to be Wake Forest fans about a coach who over the past season and a half is 36-10 overall and 12-6 in ACC play (12-7 counting the loss to Maryland in the ACC Tournament).

The Deacons beating Maryland 85-83 Tuesday for its third straight overtime win at home didn’t prove for once and for all that Dino Gaudio is the right coach for Wake, but to some, a defensive strategy he employed late in the game proved that he’s not. The Deacons went to a 1-3-1 halfcourt trap in the final 2 1/2 minutes of regulation, with near disastrous consequences. Landon Milbourne, who hadn’t been able to hit the ocean falling out of a boat, drained an open 3-pointer from the left corner and Eric Hayes hit one from the left wing for a 74-72 Maryland lead with a minute and a half to go.

Gaudio discussed the move later, saying a) Maryland was on a roll at the time, having scored on four straight possessions, b) the 1-3-1 trap had been particularly effective against Maryland last year, and c) that the Terps had struggled against the defense as recently as an 83-72 home victory over Eastern Kentucky on Dec. 12. But on this night the strategy failed, and Wake went back to the man-to-man. In overtime the Deacons closed off the back-side by switching on every screen and held the Terps to two field goals and three free throws over nine overtime possessions.

Gaudio also mentioned that one Maryland’s first possession against the 1-3-1, Hayes missed a 3-pointer that Maryland rebounded to set up Milbourne’s bomb. If Wake had pulled the defensive rebound, the critics would have had to come up with something else to slam Gaudio for.

So I guess the two things I see missing from so many of these arguments are perspective and joy.

It’s so easy to forget that the other guy has his problems too. Even a Hall of Fame Coach such as Roy Williams, just a half season removed from a national championship, finds himself coaching a North Carolina team that has played its way squarely on to the bubble.

And if there’s no joy in winning, then what is the point of caring one way or the other?

Back to the main page.

By Dan Collins on 01/14/2010 (2:58 pm)

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Dan,
I will make two predictions and you can take it to the bank.

Coach Gaudio will possibly be ACC and or National Coach of the year within three years.

He will also be one of the most sought after coaching candidates and we will hear a loud moan as the local supporters ponder whether their coach departs for greener pastures.

The story of Coach Prosser, his tenure, and that of Coach Gaudio provides fertile material for a Hollywood movie, IMO.

T. Willis on 01/15/2010 (10:37 pm)

Except (most) journalists don’t get to drive the types of cars that coaches of big time college basketball teams can afford to drive…

DC on 01/15/2010 (7:25 pm)

Got to think, coaching in the era of the internet is tough.  Your every decision will be questioned…good or bad.

On top of that, your family, relatives and friends read about you daily.  You come home one day a hero and the next a bum. 
Tough profession…kinda like a journalist.

John on 01/15/2010 (5:50 pm)

you gotta quit making us think

Paul on 01/15/2010 (10:28 am)

No question DG is good in some areas. Recruiting and better defense are two areas.  WForesters hold this program to a pretty high standard.  We like to think we can compete year after year w/ Duke and UNC. Looking around the league several teams have very good/great talent.  The difference in W’s and L’s is coaching.  DG should pitch a fit when LD Williams shoots outside the imaginary charge circle; ditto Ish; double ditto AFA.  Did you see Gary Williams guys after a time out w/ the ball?  They ran great plays and got good shots.  Our after-time out play is Ish dribbling down the clock and throwing up a prayer.  We have a huge team with highly recruited big men.  None of them have developed a go to move in our so called half court offense. Chas McFarland shoots a fade away!  We have no inside option apart from an AFA stick back.  The first 10 minutes of almost every game is nothing short of frantic disguised as"up tempo”.  These are all areas where coaching makes a difference.

Jake on 01/15/2010 (9:44 am)

Dan,

I suppose you can count me among the joyless right now.  At the end of the game against Maryland, I felt nothing but relief to have squeaked out another win against an inferior opponent, much like the feeling I had after the Richmond and Xavier games. 

This is not to say that there are not positives to draw from those games and others.  The contributions from CJ Harris and Ari Stewart are certainly pleasant surprises.  Ish Smith has been awesome, especially down the stretch of games, and I find it remarkable that he manages to continually improve his play.

You will not count me among those who blindly criticize Coach Gaudio.  My criticisms will come in the form of questions.  I was puzzled by the switch to the 1-3-1 down the stretch.  But Coach Gaudio’s explanation seemed reasonable enough to me (not all “good” moves work).  But I also question why our offense sputtered out until Maryland took the lead late in the game.  And more importantly, I would like to know what will be done to ensure we don’t let that happen again.  The fact that other teams are asking themselves similar and perhaps more troubling questions couldn’t be less relevant. 

Every win is a good win.  I really do find comfort in the fact that we beat Maryland.  But joy?  I think my sights are set too high to feel joy.  And I hope that the teams are too.  Perhaps I don’t have the right perspective.  But I will feel joy when I see Wake Forest where I truly believe it belongs, the Final Four. 

There’s a reason Wake Forest unofficial motto is, “where your best hasn’t been good enough since 1834”.  So while some people find joy in our 12-3 record, I see the need to work harder.

DC on 01/15/2010 (9:29 am)

Dan, most Deacon faithful are giving Dino the benefit of the doubt. However, the numbers don’t tell the story. Last year’s team had 3 NBA first round picks (including Aminu) and got worse as the season progressed. You are crediting two season’ worth of early, soft schedule in the record. Dino’s got to prove it in March. We’ll give him time. This team is clearly improving and executing better.  But, it is a talented team with an experienced back court. The kind of team that should over-achieve.  I personally think Dino is one of the better x and o coaches the program has had, but he needs to prove it on the floor. So far this year the marks are good.

kent on 01/14/2010 (11:15 pm)

Wake’s fanbase is just frustrated with the complete lack of success our program has had in the postseason since Duncan left. Odom and Prosser’s failures are hardly Dino’s fault, but Dino blew a great shot at making some noise in either the ACC tournament or the NCAA’s last year.  We all realize that Aminu will probably go pro after this year and the team barring some major improvement will have once again failed to achieve anything of note.

However, Dino’s not on the hot seat yet. Once he wins an ACC tournament or makes a run to the Sweet Sixteen or better the criticisms he’s undergoing now will be a thing of the past.

Jonathan on 01/14/2010 (10:53 pm)

Good challenge to all of us who seem never to be satisfied.  Perhaps some of the criticism (actually most of it) is the residual shock of last season’s collapse and the haunting fear that we will never be as good as we thought we were last year.  That said, notwithstanding frustrations in the low post, this team may become one of my all-time favorites.  There is something contagious about the blend of the old and the new.  CJ and Ari are such pleasant additions and Ish is playing the best ball of his career and AFA is displaying remarkable talent around the basket.  All that plus the athleticism makes this team exciting to watch…at times.  Still, last season is very difficult to forget.

gary on 01/14/2010 (10:33 pm)

Great article!  Though please keep in mind that there was a reason for the off season Asst coaching shake up following the team’s lackluster performance the second half of the season followed by the huge flame in the tournaments- something wasn’t clicking.

With that said, I’m thoroughly enjoying this season, we’re far from perfect but this group of kids plays with heart, which, to my eyes, had been missing for a while.

Chill on 01/14/2010 (7:20 pm)

By the way Dan, you had promised us an update on the Gtown transfer.

John on 01/14/2010 (7:02 pm)

Great post, Dan.  This is a must read for many of the Deacon Faithful.  Dino is doing a great job with the program.  Thanks for all of your effort.

Damien on 01/14/2010 (6:25 pm)

I believe the primary reason that Dino catches a lot of heat is the way he cake into being the b-ball coach at Wake.  The tragic death of Skip.  Many people feel the only reason Wellman hired Dino was to keep the incoming recruiting class in tact.  Although there may be some value in that thought process, I doubt very seriously that a recruiting class was the reason for Dino’s hire.  Actually to suggest that is in some ways a slap in the face of our AD, who I feel is one of the best AD’s in the country.

Had Dino been brought in after an extensive interviewing process, he would have enjoyed the honeymoon extended to all new coaches.  In stead, he was put in a position of the proverbial red-headed stepchild.

Let’s review what he has done so far:
1st year - Held the team together in the most difficult of circumstances and actually overachieved in the win-loss column
2nd year - 25-7 record, 2nd in the ACC regular season, beat both Goliaths (Carolina & Duke), lost 1st round NCAA tournament.
3rd year - currently 12-3, 2nd in ACC standings at 2-1, and has a top 5 nationally ranked recruiting class coming in next year.
The future - Dino is rebuilding the Deacs into his team.  He has taken what had been a weakness under Skip and has turned it into a strength…DEFENSE.  In his recruiting he is not just targeting the long tall athlete but kids with a b-ball IQ and the ability to both shoot and pass.

I for one feel the “FUTURE IS BRIGHT” under Dino’s leadership for Wake Forest basketball

John on 01/14/2010 (6:17 pm)

First rate post as usual Dan. I am in complete agreement regarding the prevailing opinion of Coach Gaudio and the reasons for it. His decision to go a relatively risky trap defense late in the game and not calling time out to properly set his defense before Maryland’s last gasp tap attempt reinforces the default setting that he’s a bit overmatched. He seems to be a genuinely nice man with many of the characteristics you want in the person who is the face of your program and someone who you’d like to see succeed, but nagging questions regarding his game management skill remain that will only be eradicated by sustained success. If he was a young coach we could hope for growth with experience but given the length of time he’s been doing this…

Allen on 01/14/2010 (6:17 pm)

Thank you for writing this Dan. I believe that if people really paid attention to the RPI, they would realize that our record isn’t that bad compared to the rest of the nation. I keep hearing about the W&M loss, never mind that they are 12-3 and we’re not the only power team that they have taken down. None of our losses are to a cupcake team.

As for Dino’s coaching abilities, he’s no John Wooden but there hasn’t been another coach who has even come close. I am forced to wonder what message boards (had they been around) would have said about the future of Dean Smith in 1965. Dino has yet to earn comparisons with either coach but he should be given a chance. He did a great job during an unimaginably emotional time his first year. We have improved as a team all three years and are respected defensively. How many people would have expected us to weather the loss of two underclassmen to the NBA as well as we have? Especially given what happened to Wake after we lost CP3. Dino has his supporters here, we’re just not as loud because we believe that what he does on the court during the entire season should do all the talking.

Patrick W. Crist '07 on 01/14/2010 (4:41 pm)

Great post, Dan.  I would have been ecstatic if you had offered me a 12-3 record at this point in the season with our non-conference road games.  Even still, at least for me—losing always seems to hurt more than wins feel good.  I’m sure it doesn’t help my blood pressure. . .

Chris on 01/14/2010 (4:27 pm)

Dan -

I haven’t commented on your blog before, though I am a faithful reader.  I want to comment now because your post “No Perspective, No Joy” contains wisdom and insight that demands commendation.  Thank you, sir.  I don’t ever want to see the Deacons lose - but the day I seem more emotionally invested in venting frustration than celebrating the successes and hard work of our representatives on the court/field, I hope my Deacon brothers and sisters will slap some perspective into me (then maybe hand me a beer to take away the sting).

Thanks again, Dan.

Jay on 01/14/2010 (4:01 pm)

Nice piece Dan. The RPI will make no difference at all if we win or lose. Win and we’re in the NCAA. Lose and we’re not! It’s very simple! It all depends on each 40 minutes Wake is on the court. Each game means just as much as any other!
Sure the Deacs have many flaws but if they can consistantly win with these flaws, they can attempt to redeem themselves come March!

BTW, was that a high school team posing as UNC last night?? I hate ‘em and was glad to see ‘em lose but I can’t remember in all my 53 years, a Carolina team playing the way they did last night! Made me very glad they have Ga Tech before us!

Ken Green on 01/14/2010 (3:42 pm)

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Dan Collins covers Wake Forest University sports for the Winston-Salem Journal.

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