Deacs Need to Finish Season Better Than Games
Math was never my thing, which surprised some back in Franklin given that Hobe Collins, my father, was a math major from Western Carolina Teachers College who tutored high school students on the side.
But rebellion does run in the family. My daughter Rebecca couldn’t give two whits about sports.
One truth about math I did pick up along the way though was that a statistic is usually only as good as its sample size. To report that a batter’s average is .143 against left-handed relievers whose last name starts with a P tells me nothing, not when I see he’s stepped to the plate all of seven times against pitchers who would qualify.
Team stats in football can be especially misleading, given that teams play only once a week. But now that we’re past mid-November and bearing down on Thanksgiving, teams have played enough games to make certain trends impossible to ignore.
And the one stat that may say more about Wake Forest’s season than any other is score by quarters. I have to admit it slipped up on me and caught me by surprise, even after watching the Deacons fade in the fourth quarter of games against Syracuse, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. But it was the loss at Clemson, where Wake was outscored 10-0 in the final quarter, that really drove the point home.
In the first quarter, Wake has outscored its opponents 67-46, in the second quarter 94-64, and third quarter 85-69. So that means Wake has dominated the first 45 minutes of their games 246 to 178.
Now comes the kicker. In the fourth quarter, the Deacons have been outscored 96-37. Only against Gardner-Webb have they scored more points in the final 15 minutes.
Senior linebacker Kyle Wilber has been vocal about the Deacons’ inability to finish games. He was vocal about it down at Clemson, and picked up the point at Tuesday’s gathering to eat chicken and talk football.
“I don’t think we have played all four quarters in the season yet,’’ Wilber said. “There’s been games when we jumped out in the lead and we’ve always for some reason let them back in the game. I think we just get too comfortable and feel like we’ve already won the game when the game’s not over yet. So I think that’s what we’re doing, trying to really mentally prepare ourselves to play all four quarters and don’t let up.
“At Clemson we let up and lost the game.’‘
So why I queried, as any self-respecting journalist should, is that happening?
“I don’t know,’’ Wilber said. “I don’t have any answers. We just get too comfortable.’‘
Lenox Rawlings asked coach Jim Grobe Tuesday if maybe a lack of depth was at play. Grobe mulled the question and you can read his response in the piece Lenox wrote for this morning’s Journal. Deacons Tormented by Almost
“I don’t think our coaches feel like being tired is an issue at the ends of games, but some of those guys have played a lot of snaps,” Grobe said. “It could be a factor. Maybe it’s a combination…. To play the kinds of teams we’ve played here lately, you’ve kinda, gotta be maybe not perfect, but close to it, down the stretch to win, and we have not done that.”
I can’t tell you how many times athletes at Wake have told me the WF on their logo stands for ``We finish.’’ I don’t, however, remembering hearing it from anybody this football season.
Two games remain, tomorrow against Maryland and next week against Vandy. Both are at home. Unless the Deacons finish the season better than they’ve finished games, they’‘ll have eight months to rue what might have been.
Back to the main page.
By Dan Collins on 11/18/2011 (12:06 pm)
Comments
Once again, the Deacs gave up points right before the half. Not that it may have mattered as much as in some other games, given the Deacs’ complete failure to even show up on Saturday. But, the fact is it was the final 7 minutes of the half that blew the game open for Vanderbilt. Vandy scored 3 - count ‘em, 3 - touchdowns in the final 6:55 of the 2nd quarter. And, the final TD drive was scored with just 37 seconds to play in the half after Vandy staged a 7-play, 81-yard drive in just 1:01 of game time. Before that last 6:55, the Deacs led 7-6. After that 6:55, the Deacs trailed 27-7 at the half en route to an embarrassing defeat.
For those scoring at home, EIGHT of the Deacs’ last nine opponents now have scored the last points of the half, and SEVEN of those teams scored in the final one minute before halftime. And, as often has been the case in the latter half of this season, the Deacs never fully recovered.
Zach on 11/27/2011 (6:21 pm)
Much has been made of the Deacs’ struggles in the 2nd half, particularly the 4th quarter, of football games. I would like to hear an explanation as to why the Deacs give up points at the end of the 1st half in almost every game of late.
Wake did not allow any of its first three opponents to score points near the end of the half. But, since Game #4 this season (BC), Wake’s opponents have been the team scoring to close the half, and it normally occurs in the final minute before halftime. Consider this breakdown arranged by games played on the Deacs’ schedule:
- Neither Syracuse, NC State nor Gardner-Webb scored near the end of the 2nd quarter
- BC scored a field goal with 0:08 left in the 1st half, after Wake scored with 1:04 to play in the half
- FSU scored a touchdown with 00:54 to play in the half, after Wake scored with 1:57 to play in the half
- Virginia Tech scored 2 touchdowns in the final five minutes of the half (4:43 and 0:04 to play)
- Duke scored a field goal with 0:04 to play in the half
- UNC scored a TD with 00:13 to play in the half
- Notre Dame did not score near the end of the half
- Clemson scored a touchdown with 5:46 to play in the half
- Maryland scored a touchdown with 00:12 to play in the half
After the first three games of the year, Wake has allowed 7 of the following 8 opponents to take the momentum into the locker room by scoring the last points of the half. And, in every game except Clemson, those 7 teams have scored with less than 1 minute to play in the half.
Particularly since Wake has received the ball to open games so often this season, this often allows opponents to carry momentum into the locker room and then come back to start the 2nd half with the ball as well. This has been one of the most maddening trends of this season of somewhat lost potential - the inability to finish, whether it be the first half or the 4th quarter. In fact, I would argue that the Deacs’ struggles in the 2nd halves of games actually begin at the end of the 1st half when the Deacs consistently begin to give away the momentum they typically gain early in the contest.
I would like our coaches to address this issue and resolve it successfully in our final two games of the year. At some point, this team must toughen up and close out halves and games if they truly want to accomplish anything meaningful. I believe the Deacs have the potential to accomplish a great deal next season (and to close this season with much to be proud of), but they need to close teams out at the end of the half and the game.
Zach on 11/22/2011 (12:22 pm)
Dan - I suck at math too, fortunately my better half is great at it and is making sure she passes her skills on to our kids.
Finishing games is all about Willpower. Here’s hoping the Deacs find the will and the way to finish these final two games, and a bowl game.
Charles on 11/18/2011 (8:20 pm)
With as many coaches on the Wake staff, you would think they could watch the films of these games lost in the second half and get a fairly good read on why ?Wonder if they have done the above. My understanding is that the films are for approaches to correct what is wrong. You don’t have this happen and there not be a reason. I don’t believe in guessing when you have films to assist you. I imagine the answers are in the films, which could lead to solving the problem.
cal on 11/18/2011 (3:44 pm)
Dan,
I think it’s a matter of expectations. After such a horrendous season last year, the goal in the offseason almost by default had to be to simply compete. I give the guys on the team and coaching staff a lot of credit for accomplishing that goal in a difficult ACC.
But they sold themselves short. When you practice all offseason with the idea of improving to the point of competing the the Clemsons and Virginia Techs, then it’s difficult to flip the switch at the end of the third quarter to focus on actually taking the game, which is what you have to do in this league.
I think that the comparison between this year’s team and the 2006 team is appropriate in this regard. At the end of the ACC Championship game, the defense should have been absolutely gassed. But there they were on the sidelines jumping around and getting themselves pumped up to protect that three-point lead.
Some of that certainly should be attributed to the special personalities on that team, and perhaps that’s the end of the story. But I think a lot of it should be attributed to Coach Hood, who always challenged his players to be great and expect more of themselves (see Alphonso Smith).
No doubt people will complain about perceived conservative playcalling. I don’t want to get into that. But if I grant that premise for just a second, I would simply say that the coaches need to drive the point home that “big plays” can still happen with the proper execution of those “conservative” play calls. The players just have to demand more of themselves.
Greg on 11/18/2011 (2:00 pm)
Page 1 of 1 pages