Monday, January 12, 2009

Our Last Post (For a While)

The swearing in of Bev Perdue and North Carolina’s other statewide elected politicians officially caps the state’s historic 2008 election season.

It also means the end for Trail Mix, which has no more election gorp to report.

At least for now.

This blog will be quiet for a while, as we turn our attention away from electoral politics and toward the fast-approaching 2009 session of the N.C. General Assembly, which convenes Jan. 28.

It’s been quite a year. Thirteen months ago, this blog launched in the heat of John Edwards’ run for president. Take a look back at our very first post to see how different everything looked back then. Edwards, pre-affair and pre-Iowa caucuses, seemed to have a fighting shot at his party’s nomination. John McCain didn’t. Illegal immigration was a red-hot issue. The economy wasn’t. Pat McCrory hadn’t even entered the race for North Carolina governor. And two Winston-Salem candidates were trying to break the city’s 104-year drought on the Council of State.

Thanks for reading, everyone. Rest assured that Trail Mix — or whatever its next incarnation is — won’t be gone for long. A new round of candidates, and those of us who chase them for a living, will be back to the trail soon: 2010 is just around the corner.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Perdue Is Swon In, Promises Accessibility

Bev Perdue, North Carolina’s first female governor, was sworn into office today, promising a hands-on approach as she confronts what may be the state’s worst financial turmoil since the Great Depression.

“We are in the midst of a global economic crisis,” she said in her inaugural address. “People are actually worried about losing their jobs, about paying their mortgage, and about their own personal future.

“Now is not the time for us to hunker down. We cannot just cut back. And I will not lower my expectations.”

Under a cold and brilliant January sun, Perdue took the oath of office administered by Sarah Parker, the chief justice of the state Supreme Court. She is the state’s 73rd governor.

Perdue’s inaugural speech was light on policy, but she seemed determined to strike a tone different from the one often set by outgoing Gov. Mike Easley, a fellow Democrat whose popularity has waned recently. Easley has been criticized for running an opaque administration and being too willing to delegate problems; Perdue, on the other hand, promised on her first day as the state’s top leader to be transparent and to get directly involved in the workings of government.

“Government must be, must be, more accountable to the people,” she told thousands of onlookers who gathered in downtown Raleigh for her inauguration ceremony. “The state’s business must be conducted in sunshine. That will inspire confidence, not cynicism.”

Friday, January 09, 2009

The New Council of State

With Saturday’s inauguration approaching, most of the focus is on Bev Perdue, who will become North Carolina’s first female governor. But nine other executive-branch officials will also be sworn in on Saturday. The nine of them, plus Perdue, make up a body known as the Council of State. The council is a sort of corollary to Perdue’s cabinet — whereas cabinet members are appointed by the governor, Council of State members are elected statewide. But like cabinet members, each Council of State member runs a department of state government.

In addition to running their respective departments, Council of State members meet once a month as a committee responsible for approving various aspects of state policy and state spending.

The incoming Council of State differs in several ways from the group that served under Easley (which is pictured above). In November’s elections, Democrats increased their majority on the council from 7-to-3 to 8-to-2. Women, for the first time, make up a majority of the council. Four of the 10 members are fresh faces who are new to the council, and a fifth (Perdue) is moving from one council post to a new one.

Here’s the full Council of State for the next four years, with newcomers in italics:

Bev Perdue, governor (D)
Walter Dalton, lieutenant governor (D)
Janet Cowell, state treasurer (D)
Roy Cooper, attorney general (D)
Elaine Marshall, secretary of state (D)
Wayne Goodwin, commissioner of insurance (D)
Steve Troxler, commissioner of agriculture (R)
Cherie Berry, commissioner of labor (R)
June Atkinson, superintendent of public instruction (D)
Beth Wood, state auditor (D)

As a whole, it’s a group with considerable youth and ambition. Is there a future governor here? Trail Mix doesn’t know, but consider this: The three most recent governors elected in North Carolina all served first in lesser positions on the Council of State.

Perdue Builds a Cabinet

Governor-elect Bev Perdue has finalized her cabinet, announcing her last four picks to round out the group of department heads that will run the operations of much of state government.

Her cabinet choices were her first major gubernatorial decisions, and if they prove anything, it’s that Perdue values competency and experience. Overall, most of her cabinet members have significant experience in state government, and none of her picks could be considered a bold surprise or is likely to cause much controversy. As Chris Fitzsimon at N.C. Policy Watch points out, most of the picks are Raleigh insiders with strong ties to the state Democratic machine.

Here is the full Perdue cabinet:

Britt Cobb, secretary of administration
The only returning member of Gov. Mike Easley’s cabinet. He acts as the state’s business manager, overseeing things like the purchase of goods and the construction of buildings.

Keith Crisco, secretary of commerce
An Asheboro city councilman and president of Asheboro Elastics Corp. He is also the head of a group pushing the state to take over hydroelectric plants along the Yadkin River.

Al Keller, secretary of correction
Retired Marine colonel who served eight years as a chief circuit military judge. Keller has also been assistant attorney general under state Attorney General Roy Cooper.

Reuben Young, secretary of crime control and public safety
Was chief legal counsel for Easley.

Linda Carlisle, secretary of cultural resources
Was an N.C. Lottery commissioner and a trustee for UNC-Greensboro. She will now oversee the state’s archives, museums and libraries.

Dee Freeman, secretary of environment and natural resources
Served 27 years as a town manager, followed by eight years as the head of the Triangle J Council of Governments.

Lanier Cansler, secretary of health and human services
May be the most closely scrutinized cabinet member because he’ll be charged with doing what his predecessors failed at: fixing the state’s troubled mental health system. Cansler has worked as a lobbyist representing companies doing business with the department he now heads.

Linda Wheeler Hayes, secretary of juvenile justice
Chaired the Governor’s Crime Commission, an advisory group that handles federal grant money. Was a major fundraiser for Easley and donor to Perdue.

Kenneth Lay, secretary of revenue
No, not that Kenneth Lay. This one is a former executive at Bank of America.

Gene Conti, secretary of transportation
Formerly held high-ranking positions in both the U.S. and N.C. departments of transportation. This pick is significant because Perdue ignored the advice of N.C. Senate leader Marc Basnight, who wanted her to pick Democratic fundraiser Lanny Wilson. Perdue says she wants to reform the state’s board of transportation, which has for many years been filled with political donors.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

What Ever Happened to Governor Glenn?

Winston-Salem might be an important battleground, but when it comes to state political clout, it’s in a century-old drought.

It’s been 104 years since anyone from Winston-Salem or Forsyth County was elected to any of the 10 executive-branch positions in state government. (Collectively, those 10 statewide elected positions are known as the Council of State.)

The last Winston-Salemite to sit on the Council of State was Gov. Robert Glenn (seen above), who was elected in 1904 and was known for such cheery achievements as banning liquor statewide.

Three residents of the Camel City did try to end the drought in 2008. State Rep. Dale Folwell briefly ran for state treasurer, but dropped out of the race before the Republican primary in order to hold onto his seat in the N.C. House. Dan Besse, a member of the Winston-Salem City Council, ran for lieutenant governor, but he lost in the Demoratic primary.

Winston-Salem’s last hope was Mary Fant Donnan, a Democrat who ran for commissioner of labor and won her primary. She made it a nail-biter against the incumbent commissioner, Cherie Berry, but Berry narrowly defeated Donnan with 50.6 percent of the vote.

A fourth Winston-Salem resident running for statewide office was Suzanne Reynolds, who tried for a seat on the N.C. Supreme Court, but Reynolds also lost a close election to an incumbent.

Of course, the story is slightly different at the federal level, where the Winston-Salem area has had much more recent success at electing its own. Sen. Richard Burr is from Winston, and incoming Sen. Kay Hagan, of Greensboro, is from just one county over.

After the Election: Bev Perdue

Governor-elect Bev Perdue isn’t wasting any time in setting up her new administration.

She appointed a transition team made up of three men with plentiful experience in state government: Zach Ambrose, Norris Tolson and Don Hobart. Ambrose was Perdue’s campaign manager in her run for governor and previously served as her chief of staff for her as lieutenant governor. Tolson has been secretary of the state departments of commerce, of transportation, and most recently, of revenue. Hobart is currently Perdue’s chief of staff and previously worked as legal counsel to Mike Easley when Easley was attorney general.

In addition to helping lead her transition efforts, Ambrose will also serve as Perdue’s chief of staff when Perdue becomes governor. That’s the first staff appointment Perdue has announced, but in coming weeks, she will likely begin to fill her cabinet. Under the Dome is doing some excellent job at the cabinet-guessing game here and here.

Perdue’s inauguration is scheduled for Jan. 10. She has also set up an “online suggestion box” here for citizens to submit comments and recommendations.

After the Election: Pat McCrory

Last week, Republican Pat McCrory came just 140,000 votes shy of beating a better-financed Democrat with more name recognition and deep ties to many of the state’s most powerful constituencies. And McCrory came that close despite fighting a headwind caused by general anti-Republican sentiment. So is McCrory itching for a gubernatorial rematch in four years?

He seems, at least, open to the idea. In an interview with Trail Mix, he said he would consider another future run for statewide office. This year, he said, he was hurt by the tide of Democratic turnout generated by the Obama field operation in North Carolina; many of those voters cast straight-ticket Democratic ballots.

In the short-term, McCrory remains mayor of Charlotte (he has not yet announced whether he will run for re-election as mayor next year). But here are three reasons why he might want to contemplate another run for governor in 2012:

—It’s hard to imagine that the environment for Republican candidates could be any worse than it was in 2008. Four years from now, it’s conceivable that Republicans will be on the comeback, whereas Democrats, saddled with the high expectations that come with their control of both federal and North Carolina government, may have lower approval ratings than they do now.

—Bev Perdue’s first term as a governor will be a difficult one. The state is facing a potential $2 billion shortfall next year, and even Perdue has acknowledged that many of her campaign promises may have to be postponed until the state budget improves. If Perdue spends the next four years plugging budget holes instead of passing new initiatives, she may be vulnerable in a re-election bid.

—Other than McCrory, there are few obvious Republicans who, at this early stage, seem like natural candidates to run in 2012. Few Republican state legislators have indicated much serious desire to run for governor. Fred Smith, who lost to McCrory in this year’s primary, certainly has the money to run again in four years; for now, he is reportedly contemplating a bid for chairman of the state GOP. Since 2004, just four Republicans have won statewide elections in North Carolina, and three of them hold less-than-prominent posts. They are: Sen. Richard Burr, Commissioner of Agriculture Steve Troxler, Commissioner of Labor Cherie Berry, and State Auditor Les Merritt. Burr is up for re-election in 2010; Troxler and Berry won re-election last week while Merritt was unseated by Democrat Beth Wood.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Election Night Update, 12:30 a.m.

North Carolina has turned blue in 2008.

With only a few precincts left to report results, Barack Obama appears headed to a tiny victory in the state. He is currently ahead of John McCain by about 13,000 votes out of more than 4 million cast. That narrow margin should be enough to give Obama the state’s 15 electoral votes — mere gravy for his landslide victory nationwide.

Democrats prevailed in nearly all the other statewide races. In addition to Bev Perdue and Kay Hagan in the races for governor and U.S. Senate, Democrats made gains on the Council of State, the 10-person group made up of North Carolina’s statewide elected officials in the executive branch. Democrat Beth Wood ousted Republican Les Merritt in the state auditor’s race, and Republican Cherie Berry, the incumbent labor commission, is locked in a dead heat with Democrat Mary Fant Donnan, of Winston-Salem. That race is too close to call.

Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, the Republican who represents Northwest North Carolina, has won re-election.

Check JournalNow for updated results. Trail Mix is now going to get a drink (or three) and get some sleep. The post-mortems begin in the morning.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Election Night Update, 10:30 p.m.

With results still rolling in, a razor-thin margin separates Barack Obama and John McCain.

Kay Hagan has defeated Elizabeth Dole for U.S. Senate, one of several Senate races across the nation in which Republican seats are switching to Democrats.

And TV stations in Raleigh have just called the governor’s race for Bev Perdue. But Perdue’s people say they are still looking at the numbers are not ready to declare victory.

Update 10:55 p.m.: Pat McCrory has just conceded the governor’s race to Perdue.

Follow all of the numbers as they come in here.

Forsyth Is a County to Watch

If North Carolina is an important battleground for the nation, Forsyth County could be a battleground in microcosm.

Democratic pollster Tom Jensen says that Forsyth County is a key county to watch tonight. Along with nine other counties, it could be a good barometer because its county-wide vote totals almost exactly mirrored the state-wide totals in the presidential race four years ago.

“So if these [county results] come in and Obama is winning them, even by a small amount, that’s a pretty good omen for his overall prospects in the state,” Jensen writes on his blog.

Jensen, who works for the N.C. polling firm Public Policy Polling, also notes that Obama’s performance in North Carolina depends on his ability to expand turnout in urban areas, like Winston-Salem, and win over former Bush voters in growing suburban areas, like those surrounding Winston-Salem.