Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Obama’s Buzzwords

Which words did Barack Obama hit on in his stump speech this afternoon in Greensboro? It’s far from a scientific analysis of his speech, but Trail Mix made a count of how many times he uttered some of the key words that have dominated the Democratic presidential race. Here are the results, which will be compared to Hillary Clinton’s word list when she makes her stump speech in Winston-Salem tomorrow.

Obama said…

“Clinton” — 2 times
“McCain” — 8 times
“Bush” — 10 times
“Iraq” — 4 times
“bin Laden” — 1 time
“commander in chief” — 1 time
“health care” — 14 times
“immigration” — 0 times
“recession” — 3 times
“change” — 10 times
“experience” — 0 times
“God” — 2 times
“North Carolina” / “North Carolinian” — 4 times

(Disclaimer: This list is based on Trail Mix’s live, handwritten tally taken while listening to the speech, and has not been cross-checked against a written transcript. It also doesn’t include Obama’s answers to audience members’ questions; it’s just based on his stump speech.)

Obama Revisits Wright Controversy

GREENSBORO — Responding to an audience member’s question today, Barack Obama addressed the recent controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama’s longtime pastor at Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago.

Obama was harshly attacked after videos surfaced recently of incendiary remarks Wright made in some of his sermons. After Sept. 11, 2001, Wright said that “American’s chickens are coming home to roost,” and he once suggested that the U.S. government created the AIDS virus to kill black people. Obama has repeatedly denounced the comments, and has said that he was not personally in attendance for the most inflammatory ones.

Last week, Obama tried to put the issue to rest in a major speech addressing the Wright controversy and the broader issue of race in America. Today, Obama used a question from the audience about his religious beliefs to return to the Wright issue.

Obama called Trinity United Church “a wonderful, welcoming church” and said that on any given Sunday, services there were similar to any other church in America. But he added that Wright said “some very objectionable things.” Obama then added:

“They found five or six of his most offensive statements, boiled that down into a half-an-hour sound clip, or a half-minute sound clip, and just played it over and over and over again, partly because it spoke to some of the racial divisions that we have in this country, and it tapped into those divisions. I hope people don’t get distracted by that.”

Obama Speaks in Greensboro

GREENSBORO — Barack Obama focused most of his attention on John McCain during a stump speech today at the Greensboro War Memorial Coliseum.

Before a raucous, roaring crowd, Obama laid out his support of health care reform, the withdrawal of troops from Iraq and assistance for people hurt by rising home foreclosures. He also demonstrated his desire to shift the presidential campaign toward a general-election fight. He strongly criticized McCain, the Republican candidate, over a major speech that McCain made yesterday on the mortgage and housing crisis. Obama said that McCain offered no new policies or ideas to help people affected by the crisis.

He also attacked McCain for his support for continuing the war in Iraq.

In contrast, he mentioned Hillary Clinton, his Democratic opponent, only in passing, briefly criticizing her for taking campaign contributions from lobbyists.

Obama’s appearance in Greensboro is his second campaign visit to North Carolina, after he made campaign stops last week in Fayetteville and Charlotte. Clinton is expected to make her first visit tomorrow, with stops in Raleigh, Fayetteville and Winston-Salem.

Update 6:15 p.m.: The McCain camp responded to Obama’s critique on the housing issue, calling Obama’s comments “smear tactics” and saying that Obama’s plan to deal with foreclosures would require tax increases. “John McCain has called for an immediate and balanced approach to provide transparency and accountability in an effort to help homeowners who are hurting,” a McCain spokesman said in a written statement, “while Barack Obama has made a $10 billion election-year promise that is sure to raise taxes and handcuff an already struggling economy.”

Polling Perplexity, Part 2

Trail Mix just noticed this other incredible tidbit from the PPP poll released yesterday.

Trailhead, the political blog of the online magazine Slate, notes that in the poll, an astounding 31 percent of Democratic voters said that if John Edwards endorsed Hillary Clinton, it would make them less likely to vote for her. Just as interesting: only 12 percent said that an Edwards endorsement would make them more likely to vote for Clinton.

The poll didn’t ask about the potential effect of an Edwards endorsement of Obama.

So maybe this answers the question on many people’s minds: Why hasn’t Edwards endorsed anyone?

Trailhead has the full, and fascinating, analysis here. And you can see the polling statistics and detailed crosstabs by going here (PDF).

In Print Today: N.C. and Clinton’s Political Fate

From today’s print edition: A look at Hillary Clinton’s shrinking presidential chances, and North Carolina’s potentially decisive role in her political fate.

Clinton’s aides say the state is important but not “must-win”; meanwhile, some outside analysts say that her narrowing path to the nomination must almost certainly include a victory in North Carolina.

And Jerry Meek, the state Democratic Party chairman who is neutral in the race (and is also a superdelegate), suggests that the race, for all practical purposes, may be over. A quote from Meek:

“I think it’s very, very unlikely that if Obama won both the popular vote and the pledged-vote count, that the nomination would go to Clinton. The public outcry as a result of that would be so intense that it would not happen.”

Neither of the conditions that Meek cites (Obama’s lead in pledged delegates, and his lead in the overall popular vote from all primaries and caucuses) are likely to change. Obama’s leads in both categories are small, but it’s just about impossible for Clinton to overcome them in the remaining state contests, especially because proposals for re-votes in Florida and Michigan are apparently dead.

Read more here.

Polling Perplexity

Last week, Barack Obama led Hillary Clinton by one point in North Carolina. This week, he’s up by 21 points. And both numbers come from the same pollster.

So which number is right?

Averell “Ace” Smith, Clinton’s North Carolina director, said he believes the truth is somewhere in between those two numbers. Craig Schirmer, Obama’s North Carolina director, said he thinks the poll showing a one-point lead is closer to the truth.

In reality, the two tracking polls from Public Policy Polling may not be directly comparable. That’s because the polling firm changed its methodology, Tom Jensen writes on the firm’s blog. Last week’s poll surveyed voters who voted in the 2004 or 2006 primaries, whereas this week’s poll was expanded to take in voters who may not have voted in either primary but who did vote in the 2006 general election. According to Jensen, that sample is more accurate when trying to predict the outcome of a “high intensity primary.“ (But that hasn’t stopped Public Policy Polling from getting lots of harsh criticism from Clinton supporters.)

Obama’s rise from last week to this week could also be attributed to media attention from his campaign visit last Wednesday, or perhaps from positive reaction to his major speech last week on race in America.

Other than Public Policy Polling, which is based in Raleigh, few pollsters have done much polling of the presidential candidates in North Carolina. For a good, constantly updated list of all the polls that have been done in the state, go here.

North Carolina — The Clinton Camp’s Assessment

How does the Hillary Clinton campaign assess the race in North Carolina? Here’s what Averell “Ace” Smith, who is running Clinton’s campaign here, had to say.

Smith told Trail Mix that Barack Obama starts with a large advantage here and that if Clinton were to win on May 6, “it would probably be one of the greatest upsets, probably in the last 10 years.“ But Smith also said he expects North Carolina to be competitive and said the Clinton campaign will put in place “one of the biggest, deepest grassroots organizations that this state’s ever seen.“

Does Clinton have to pull off the upset to have a chance at the presidential nomination, as some commentators have suggested? Smith said no. “There’s no question that a huge upset win in North Carolina would be great for the campaign,“ he said. “Is it absolutely necessary? The answer is we’re just looking to run a strong campaign here.“

But he did seem to acknowledge that for Clinton to win the nomination, she will need some sort of race-changing development to counteract the growing perception that Obama is the nominee-to-be. “That may be how it looks to you today,“ Smith said, referring to Obama’s status as the apparent front-runner. “But there’s going to be a lot of things that happen between now and the next two months that can change things immensely,“ Smith said.

North Carolina — The Obama Camp’s Assessment

How does the Barack Obama campaign view the race heading into North Carolina? Here’s Craig Schirmer, Obama’s state director in North Carolina, on the state of the race.

“What we hope to do is do the best we can in this state and compete aggressively for the 115 pledged delegates,“ Schirmer told Trail Mix. “Our hope is that if we do well here, that will certainly further our case that we are the nominee.“

Schirmer did not dispute the notion that North Carolina could be something of a clincher if Obama were to win big here.

On Hillary Clinton’s chances to win the nomination, Schirmer said: “I think her window is very narrow, and I think she is going to have a very tough time winning” the nomination. Does her window narrow even further if Obama wins North Carolina? “Absolutely,“ Schirmer said.

Later, in an e-mail, Schirmer repeated the Obama campaign’s claim that Obama can compete in North Carolina in November. “North Carolina is a huge battleground in both the primary and general elections, and it would be a serious mistake for the Clinton campaign to disregard the state or suggest that the votes cast by North Carolinians aren’t as important as other states. Senator Obama intends to compete very aggressively here in North Carolina, and isn’t taking anything for granted.“

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Details on Clinton’s Visit

The Clinton campaign just announced that Clinton will campaign in Raleigh, Fayetteville and Winston-Salem on Thursday.

The Winston-Salem event will be in the gymnasium of Forsyth Technical Community College. Doors open at 4 p.m.; the event begins at 5:30. It’s free and open to the public, and no tickets are required.

Clinton Coming to Winston on Thursdsay

Hillary Clinton will visit Winston-Salem on Thursday.

“We have been informed that Sen. Clinton will be in Winston-Salem for a few hours on Thursday evening,“ said Lee Garrity, Winston-Salem’s city manager.

No other details were immediately available. Garrity said he did not know where in Winston Clinton will be. The Clinton campaign is expected to announce more details today of her planned trip, which will be her first campaign stop in North Carolina of the 2008 election season. Her visit to Winston will follow a planned campaign stop by Barack Obama in Greensboro on Wednesday.

Fox8 is also on the story.

Update 2:30 p.m.: The Fayetteville Observer‘s blog is reporting that Clinton will also visit Fayetteville on Thursday.