Friday, January 04, 2008

The View Out of Iowa

The final tally on the Democratic side in Iowa:

Barack Obama 38 percent
John Edwards 30 percent
Hillary Clinton 29 percent

Certainly a remarkable night for Obama, a huge disappointment for Clinton, and an ambiguous mixed bag for Edwards. In the few hours since the caucuses, the Edwards people have already begun spinning the results to try to position themselves into a two-race against Obama. Don’t expect that to happen anytime soon; the Clinton machine loves to play the comeback card.

Edwards’ challenge now is moving to New Hampshire and the other early states without the momentum boost that an Iowa victory would have given him. He has much less money than either of his two chief rivals, and he currently trails by about 10 points in most New Hampshire polls. For evidence of Edwards’ problem, recall 2004. That year, Edwards also finished second place in Iowa — and it was a much more surprising second place than this year’s. So how did he carry that through to New Hampshire in 2004? He finished fourth.

That being said, Edwards did go on to win South Carolina in 2004. And his campaign has made much of his union support this year in Nevada, which will hold its caucuses on Jan. 19. There are also several more debates scheduled this month — the first one coming in less than 48 hours on Saturday night. So there’s plenty more fight left in this fight. Edwards has a 3 a.m. red-eye to New Hampshire, and he’ll kick off five days of campaigning in the Granite State at a 6:15 a.m. event this morning.

Thursday, January 03, 2008

Obama Wins Iowa

A few percentage points behind are Edwards and Clinton in a virtual tie.

The main storylines: Colossal turnout. Young voters, indepdendents come out for Obama. Caucus-goers say they want candidate who will bring change.

Over on the GOP side, Mike Huckabee has a surprisingly large win over Mitt Romney.

More later, after I meet my deadline for the dead-tree edition. But amid all this breathlessness, here’s some much-needed perspective from UNC’s Southern politics expert Ferrel Guillory, with whom I just spoke. Guillory’s reaction:

It’s a relatively small Midwestern state, and I’m not diminishing it, but this is a race where American voters need to know more about all these candidates. This is a race that in my view needs to go on for several weeks. It’s too early, it seems to me, to crown anyone the nominee. And Sen. Edwards has still got an uphill climb. He didn’t come in first. But he didn’t fall back into the second tier either. And so if he can continue raising money, and if he can continue engaging directly in debate with senators Obama and Clinton, he still has some time to let people take a look at his potential as a Democratic nominee and as a possible president.

What to Watch for Tonight

At 7 p.m. sharp tonight in Iowa (that’s 8 p.m. EST), the doors to school gymnasiums and community meeting rooms will swing shut and precinct caucuses will begin. On the Democratic side, caucuses could take as long as two hours, and word from Iowa is that the state party hopes to start releasing results by 9 p.m. (or 10 p.m. EST).

It’s a cold, clear night night in Iowa. Here are three keys to look for:

How’s the turnout? The CW says that a lower turnout (probably around 125,000 to 150,000 Democrats) will help Edwards, whose campaign is depending on regular caucus-goers such as union members and Democratic activists, as well as Iowans who supported Edwards four years ago. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is trying to bring out older women who have never caucused before, and Barack Obama has appealed to young voters, independents and even some Republicans (who can caucus for Democrats if they switch their party affiliation tonight). A turnout well above 150,000 may help Edwards’ chief rivals.

Who will be a second choice? When the second-tier candidates (Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich) do not reach the 15-percent viability requirement in particular precincts, will their supporters just go home or will they realign to Edwards, Obama or Clinton? These second-choice caucus-goers could represent 10 percent or more of the total Democratic turnout — a substantial block if any of the major candidates can capitalize.

What will rural voters do? David “Mudcat” Saunders, an Edwards senior strategist from Virginia, has told me that rural voters will be crucial, both in the Iowa caucuses and the general election. The candidate who can appeal to the farmers and factory workers in the faraway nooks and crannies of Iowa could be the one who prevails throughout the state. And we may get an early gauge from results in the smaller, rural precincts before the urban areas start reporting results.

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Caucus Eve

Right now in Iowa, John Edwards is in the 23rd hour or so of his 36-hour rush toward the finish line. Caucus night is roughly 33 hours away. There’s no clear agreement among the recent Iowa polls, except for one thing: This race is tiiiiight.

Yesterday brought two interesting caucus-related developments from the left side of the Democratic Party. Dennis Kucinich, widely seen as the most liberal of the Democratic candidates running for president, urged his supporters to caucus for Barack Obama if Kucinich is not viable (ie, if he does not receive 15 percent support in a given precinct) tomorrow night. Four years ago, Kucinich did the same thing for Edwards, helping to propel him to a surprise second-place finish. Edwards is apparently less palatable to Kucinich this time around, but Edwards did get the endorsement of a different lefty, Ralph Nader. Nader, the infamous Green Party candidate whom many Democrats blame for spoiling Al Gore’s presidential chances in 2000, endorsed Edwards, using the same anti-corporate language that Edwards uses on the stump.

Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Crunch Time

Some bad polling news today for John Edwards.

Barack Obama, with whom Edwards is competing for “change” voters, shows a big improvement and a sizeable lead in the final Des Moines Register poll, which is out today. The Register‘s poll is very well respected, and analysts look to it every four years for what may be the best (although still imperfect) indicator of how things are swinging in the days leading up to the caucuses. Here’s a chart from the Register:

And in case you needed more proof that it is crunch time in Iowa, check out Edwards’ schedule for the next day and a half. Today he launched a 36-hour, 16-event, all-night final push that will last until tomorrow evening’s caucuses. The events include a meeting at a supporter’s house at 2:15 a.m. 

Monday, December 31, 2007

New Year’s Resolution

What better way to ring in the upcoming politics of 2008 than with some resolutions? Here are the things that Trail Mix thinks some N.C. politicians should be working on in the new year.

Former U.S. senator John Edwards (running for president): Keep presidential hopes alive for more than three days of 2008 (in other words: Win Iowa on Thursday.)

State Sen. Kay Hagan, D-Guilford (running for U.S. Senate): Raise a million dollars a month for the next 10 months to have a decent shot at beating incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-5th (running for re-election): Try switching to e-mail.

State Sen. Fred Smith, R-Johnston (running for governor): Hit the treadmill (to work off all that barbecue!).

Winston-Salem Councilman Dan Besse (running for lieutenant governor): Set a P.R. (how ‘bout knocking a couple minutes off that 3:02 marathon, Dan?)

Got more resolution ideas for your favorite local politician? Comment below! Here’s hoping for a new year full of political fireworks.

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Update: It looks like the Journal‘s editorial board beat me to it. They offer some slightly less snarky resolutions for a wide variety of people, including several gubernatorial candidates.

A Bad Frickin’ Word

Not many journalists get to see their stories in the august pages of The Washington Post. Or even in the slightly-less-august web pages of that newspaper’s online version. So Trail Mix was startled over the weekend to stumble upon this post from the Post‘s election blog, called The Trail (couldn’t they have thought of a more creative name involving the word “trail”? Hm...).

The blog post in question is a fairly interesting look at the Edwards campaign’s efforts to manage expectations in Iowa. Even more interesting, at least to this reporter, is the first reader comment. It’s from one George Wilson, of Clemmons, N.C., and it refers directly to a certain story from Saturday’s Winston-Salem Journal. Wilson, apparently, is upset about a quote in the story from an Edwards volunteer, who was playfully venting about caucus-goers who wait until the last minute to make up their minds. From the Journal story:

“There are people that — and they tell me this — will not decide until they go to the caucus because they like everyone coming over to them and trying to woo them,” Brown said. “In my head, I’m thinking, ‘You’re crazy. Let’s decide and move on. It’s not about sweet-talkin’ ya. It’s about the frickin’ United States of America.’”

An interesting adjective to describe the United States, to be sure. Wilson, on the Post‘s blog, responded with this:

Its unbelievable enough that someone would use that thin euphenism for the f-word at all in a public quote. It is even more unbelievable that she would use it in reference to this country in a presidential campaign.

Perhaps hardened by too much time in newsrooms, where deadlines usually bring a curse word or three, Trail Mix hardly batted an eye at the quote initially. It sure does impart a certain salty Iowa flavor. Is it slightly off-color? Sure. Is it how stressed-out campaign workers undoubtedly talk? You bet. Is it the next Edwards mini-scandal in the making? Highly doubtful. But Trail Mix is saving the audio tape of the interview, just to be safe. (And for the record, Brown was not frickin’ misquoted.)

T-Minus 3 Days

You might have heard that there are these little things called the Iowa caucuses happening Thursday. And if you’re anything like this reporter was until about a month ago, you might have only the foggiest of ideas about what exactly a caucus is — and how it differs from the usual primary elections that most states (including North Carolina) employ. Not to worry: Iowa’s caucus quirks are explained in this story from Saturday’s Journal.

Now that that plug is out of the way, take a look at some of the other media coverage of the impending caucuses and the state of John Edwards, who seems to be peaking at just the right time. There was lots of good stuff over the weekend:

-- McClatchy Newspapers: Edwards shuns “yes"-men; prefers being challenged by his own aides

-- A.P.: Even millionaires face money crunch (especially if, like Edwards, they take public financing)

-- Washington Post: But sometimes mere millionaires get help from mega-millionaires. Mega-millionaires named Mellon.

-- WaPo take two: Edwards’ closing argument? “Fight. Fight. Fight. Fight.”

-- And lastly, The Des Moines Register: The “electability” issue, as analyzed by David Yepsen, the guru of Iowa politics

Friday, December 28, 2007

An Edwards Op-Ed, and Other Iowa News

John Edwards lays out his “Middle Class Rising” agenda in an op-ed piece in today’s Boston Globe. The piece is essentially a condensed version of the stump speech Edwards has been delivering lately on the campaign trail, minus the fist pumps and the iconic story about a childhood brawl.

In the op-ed, Edwards says his parents taught him “that somebody from a little town in North Carolina could do just about anything if he worked hard and played by the rules.” But hammering on his favorite theme, he continues:

[T]oday, the promise of America is being threatened by lobbyists and their corporate clients who have taken over our government and sold out the middle class. Middle-class incomes have stagnated for the past seven years, and families across the country are working harder than ever but are still struggling to cover the rising costs of healthcare, education, and transportation. The truth is that our economy is only growing at the top.

With just six days to go before the Iowa caucuses, it is crunch time for Edwards and all the other candidates. Yesterday’s assassination of Benazir Bhutto immediately intervened in the daily campaigning; while all of the candidates addressed the situation in Pakistan, Edwards went a step further than any other candidate. He actually called Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and spoke with him about Bhutto’s assassination. You can read about their conversation here.

And in polling updates, the most recent Iowa poll shows the race to be laughably close. Obama: 30 percent. Clinton: 29 percent. Edwards: 28 percent. Margin of error: 4.5 percentage points. Who said this wouldn’t go down to the wire?

Thursday, December 27, 2007

Snyder Still Mulling Run

Jim Snyder, a lawyer from Lexington, is still considering a second run at the office of lieutenant governor — and as he contemplates his chances, he is closely watching what happens in the presidential race.

In 2004, the Republican Snyder ran unsuccessfully against incumbent Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue. He received 43 percent of the vote. Earlier this year, he told the Journal that he was thinking of running again. This afternoon, he told Trail Mix that he still has not made a final decision but that he continues to examine the 2008 political landscape and has been speaking with Republican Party leaders. He said he expects to decide within the next few weeks. Candidates who want to run for state office in 2008 have until Feb. 29 to file the necessary paperwork.

Snyder said that one of the factors in his decision will be which presidential candidates in each party emerge as the likely nominees. It’s an often-overlooked but important factor for Republicans trying to chip away at the Democratic control of the state executive branch. For instance, Snyder said he believes John McCain and Rudy Giuliani would do well in North Carolina, and he would like to run on a ticket headed by either of them. On the Democratic side, he believes Barack Obama would be the Democratic presidential nominee who would be most favorable for North Carolina’s Republican candidates. Some Republicans are hoping that Hillary Clinton is the nominee, believing that her polarizing reputation would motivate the Republican base to turn out in large numbers. But Snyder disagrees. “She’s coming across as being the toughest of all of them,” he said. “She is going to be a very formidable candidate in this day and time.”

If Snyder decides to run, he will enter a crowded field. So far, on the Republican side, Greg Dority and Robert Pittenger are running for lieutenant governor. On the Democratic side, Dan Besse, Walter Dalton, Hampton Dellinger and Pat Smathers are running.