After the Election: Pat McCrory

Last week, Republican Pat McCrory came just 140,000 votes shy of beating a better-financed Democrat with more name recognition and deep ties to many of the state’s most powerful constituencies. And McCrory came that close despite fighting a headwind caused by general anti-Republican sentiment. So is McCrory itching for a gubernatorial rematch in four years?

He seems, at least, open to the idea. In an interview with Trail Mix, he said he would consider another future run for statewide office. This year, he said, he was hurt by the tide of Democratic turnout generated by the Obama field operation in North Carolina; many of those voters cast straight-ticket Democratic ballots.

In the short-term, McCrory remains mayor of Charlotte (he has not yet announced whether he will run for re-election as mayor next year). But here are three reasons why he might want to contemplate another run for governor in 2012:

—It’s hard to imagine that the environment for Republican candidates could be any worse than it was in 2008. Four years from now, it’s conceivable that Republicans will be on the comeback, whereas Democrats, saddled with the high expectations that come with their control of both federal and North Carolina government, may have lower approval ratings than they do now.

—Bev Perdue’s first term as a governor will be a difficult one. The state is facing a potential $2 billion shortfall next year, and even Perdue has acknowledged that many of her campaign promises may have to be postponed until the state budget improves. If Perdue spends the next four years plugging budget holes instead of passing new initiatives, she may be vulnerable in a re-election bid.

—Other than McCrory, there are few obvious Republicans who, at this early stage, seem like natural candidates to run in 2012. Few Republican state legislators have indicated much serious desire to run for governor. Fred Smith, who lost to McCrory in this year’s primary, certainly has the money to run again in four years; for now, he is reportedly contemplating a bid for chairman of the state GOP. Since 2004, just four Republicans have won statewide elections in North Carolina, and three of them hold less-than-prominent posts. They are: Sen. Richard Burr, Commissioner of Agriculture Steve Troxler, Commissioner of Labor Cherie Berry, and State Auditor Les Merritt. Burr is up for re-election in 2010; Troxler and Berry won re-election last week while Merritt was unseated by Democrat Beth Wood.