Mayhem in Manchester
What a night to be a political geek.
Trail Mix, which is getting a few days of R&R in snow-choked Oregon, did not have access to a TV tonight. At first, this was a cause for great alarm. How to navigate the night of the New Hampshire primary without the familiar insta-punditry of MSNBC? I was left with only my laptop, a spotty internet connection, and my index finger constantly hitting “refresh” as the results rolled in. But as it turns out, this system was more suspenseful, more dramatic, more fun than passively watching on television.
As you undoubtedly already know: Hillary Clinton shocked the pollsters (who had been predicting a 10-point win for Barack Obama) and likely shocked herself by winning New Hampshire’s Democratic primary. John McCain’s win on the Republican side was slightly more expected but no less confounding in terms of its implications for the future of the race. Political geekery alert: This is the first time in the modern primary era that the Iowa Democratic caucuses, the New Hampshire Democratic primary, the Iowa Republican caucuses and the New Hampshire Republican primary have been won by four different people. Two early states. Four different contests. Four different winners. And presidential nominating races in both parties that are still wide open and are likely to stay that way for a while longer.
On balance, that has to be a good thing for getting more states and more people involved in a process that is constantly criticized for giving undue influence to a handful of early states. Could either of these races still be unsettled by time North Carolina holds its exceedingly late primary on May 6? I wouldn’t bet money on it. But I wouldn’t have bet money six hours ago that Clinton would win New Hampshire. And I wouldn’t have bet money a month ago that McCain would emerge as the apparent Republican frontrunner.
What about former North Carolina senator John Edwards? He finished in a distant third place tonight with about 17 percent of the vote — about what the polls were expecting. He has made it clear that he intends to stay in the race for the long haul. In one sense, Clinton’s victory in New Hampshire is good for Edwards, because an Obama win would have made Obama very difficult to stop. Now the race is essentially back to where it was before Iowa, and Edwards will need to find an opening somewhere. His best chance (which is, admittedly, still a long shot) may be on Jan. 26 in South Carolina, a state Edwards won four years ago.
Stay tuned. I know I’ll be watching. And hitting that “refresh” button.
