Poll shows Edwards in lead in Iowa

Some big polling news this evening for the John Edwards campaign.

According to a just-released InsiderAdvantage poll, Edwards has regained the lead in Iowa over Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton — a lead he hasn’t held in any poll since August. Among Democrats who said they plan to caucus on Jan. 3, Edwards has 30 percent support in the poll, while Clinton has 26 percent and Obama has 24 percent.

Another part of the poll could be even more important for Edwards: He is much more likely than either Obama or Clinton to be named as the second choice of voters who prefer a candidate other than the top three. The second-choice factor will be crucial on caucus night because of the Iowa Democratic Party’s byzantine caucus rules. At each caucus around the state, if a candidate receives less than 15 percent support in an initial vote, that candidate is eliminated and the candidate’s supporters can realign behind one of the remaining viable candidates. (Check the print edition of the Journal this weekend for more on this topic, and how it could affect Edwards’s chances.)

The poll isn’t a complete slam dunk for Edwards. Among the most likely caucus-goers (who were determined by a set of questions), Obama has a razor-thin lead over Edwards, with Clinton in a close third.

Bottom line: this suggests that the race is only getting tighter as the caucuses approach. Perhaps all the optimistic talk from the Edwards campaign over the last several days has some truth to it.