The View Out of Iowa

The final tally on the Democratic side in Iowa:

Barack Obama 38 percent
John Edwards 30 percent
Hillary Clinton 29 percent

Certainly a remarkable night for Obama, a huge disappointment for Clinton, and an ambiguous mixed bag for Edwards. In the few hours since the caucuses, the Edwards people have already begun spinning the results to try to position themselves into a two-race against Obama. Don’t expect that to happen anytime soon; the Clinton machine loves to play the comeback card.

Edwards’ challenge now is moving to New Hampshire and the other early states without the momentum boost that an Iowa victory would have given him. He has much less money than either of his two chief rivals, and he currently trails by about 10 points in most New Hampshire polls. For evidence of Edwards’ problem, recall 2004. That year, Edwards also finished second place in Iowa — and it was a much more surprising second place than this year’s. So how did he carry that through to New Hampshire in 2004? He finished fourth.

That being said, Edwards did go on to win South Carolina in 2004. And his campaign has made much of his union support this year in Nevada, which will hold its caucuses on Jan. 19. There are also several more debates scheduled this month — the first one coming in less than 48 hours on Saturday night. So there’s plenty more fight left in this fight. Edwards has a 3 a.m. red-eye to New Hampshire, and he’ll kick off five days of campaigning in the Granite State at a 6:15 a.m. event this morning.