What to Watch for Tonight

At 7 p.m. sharp tonight in Iowa (that’s 8 p.m. EST), the doors to school gymnasiums and community meeting rooms will swing shut and precinct caucuses will begin. On the Democratic side, caucuses could take as long as two hours, and word from Iowa is that the state party hopes to start releasing results by 9 p.m. (or 10 p.m. EST).

It’s a cold, clear night night in Iowa. Here are three keys to look for:

How’s the turnout? The CW says that a lower turnout (probably around 125,000 to 150,000 Democrats) will help Edwards, whose campaign is depending on regular caucus-goers such as union members and Democratic activists, as well as Iowans who supported Edwards four years ago. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is trying to bring out older women who have never caucused before, and Barack Obama has appealed to young voters, independents and even some Republicans (who can caucus for Democrats if they switch their party affiliation tonight). A turnout well above 150,000 may help Edwards’ chief rivals.

Who will be a second choice? When the second-tier candidates (Bill Richardson, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich) do not reach the 15-percent viability requirement in particular precincts, will their supporters just go home or will they realign to Edwards, Obama or Clinton? These second-choice caucus-goers could represent 10 percent or more of the total Democratic turnout — a substantial block if any of the major candidates can capitalize.

What will rural voters do? David “Mudcat” Saunders, an Edwards senior strategist from Virginia, has told me that rural voters will be crucial, both in the Iowa caucuses and the general election. The candidate who can appeal to the farmers and factory workers in the faraway nooks and crannies of Iowa could be the one who prevails throughout the state. And we may get an early gauge from results in the smaller, rural precincts before the urban areas start reporting results.