Dissecting the SoCon’s North Division race
Quality can be debated, but competition has been outstanding in the Southern Conference’s North Division this season.
Looking ahead, it stands to reason that the race for a regular-season title as well as first-round tournament byes for the top two teams will be close when things wrap up two weeks from now.
Final standings could resemble 2008-09, when only two teams in the North wound up with winning records in league play. Chattanooga and Western Carolina locked up the top two spots that season with 11-9 marks.
As it stands now, Elon (8-4) is in the strongest position toward wrapping up one of the two all-important tournament byes but the Phoenix has challenges ahead. Their remaining opponents have a combined winning record in league play, and four of their remaining games are on the road.
UNC Greensboro (7-5) is in second place by virtue of its recent seven-game winning streak. The Spartans also have work ahead, with four of their remaining six games on the road and against teams with a combined winning record in league play.
Samford (6-6) is in third place, has the most prestigious victories as of late (beating Davidson and winning at Wofford) but has the toughest remaining schedule among North Division teams in regard to opponents with winning records.
Appalachian State (5-8) and Western Carolina (4-8) still have a shot, but both need a late-season run. Chattanooga (3-9) was picked in preseason polls to win the North but is mired in last.
ASU appears to have the easiest schedule left – in that remaining opponents have a combined 22-40 league mark (.355) – although three of the Mountaineers’ remaining five games are on the road.
As in any tight race, winning close games is usually a difference maker. UNCG (4-0 in games decided by three points or less or in overtime), Elon (2-0) and Samford (4-1) have been successful in winning close league games.
ASU (0-3) and Western Carolina (0-3) have come up on the short end. The Mountaineers have lost two league games by less than two points and another in overtime. WCU has lost two by three points, and one in overtime.
UNCG’s margin has been thin, but has been a difference maker. The Spartans have won four conference games by either one point or in overtime.
Finally, standings including games ONLY between North Division opponents are telling of how closely-matched the teams are. Only two games separate first and sixth place.
Standings including games only between North Division teams:
Elon 4-2
UNCG 4-3
ASU 4-4
Samford 3-3
WCU 3-4
Chattanooga 2-4
This week’s Southern Conference rankings (teams get two points for a road win, one point for a home win, minus-one for a road loss and minus-two for a home loss in conference games only):
1. Davidson (16 points)
2. Georgia Southern (8)
3. Elon (5)
4. Wofford (4)
5. UNC Greensboro (2)
6. Samford (0)
7. College of Charleston (-1)
Furman (-1)
9. Appalachian State (-5)
10. Western Carolina (-6)
11. Chattanooga (-8)
12. The Citadel (-14)
North vs. South: South Division leads 20-12.