Polling Perplexity
Last week, Barack Obama led Hillary Clinton by one point in North Carolina. This week, he’s up by 21 points. And both numbers come from the same pollster.
So which number is right?
Averell “Ace” Smith, Clinton’s North Carolina director, said he believes the truth is somewhere in between those two numbers. Craig Schirmer, Obama’s North Carolina director, said he thinks the poll showing a one-point lead is closer to the truth.
In reality, the two tracking polls from Public Policy Polling may not be directly comparable. That’s because the polling firm changed its methodology, Tom Jensen writes on the firm’s blog. Last week’s poll surveyed voters who voted in the 2004 or 2006 primaries, whereas this week’s poll was expanded to take in voters who may not have voted in either primary but who did vote in the 2006 general election. According to Jensen, that sample is more accurate when trying to predict the outcome of a “high intensity primary.“ (But that hasn’t stopped Public Policy Polling from getting lots of harsh criticism from Clinton supporters.)
Obama’s rise from last week to this week could also be attributed to media attention from his campaign visit last Wednesday, or perhaps from positive reaction to his major speech last week on race in America.
Other than Public Policy Polling, which is based in Raleigh, few pollsters have done much polling of the presidential candidates in North Carolina. For a good, constantly updated list of all the polls that have been done in the state, go here.
